Global truck study 2016
Truck market: Digitalization will stop growth by 2026
The study gives an outlook on future developments in the global commercial vehicle markets and shows which trends and technologies these will influence over the next ten years.
The traditional idea that economic growth means increasing sales of trucks is breaking down. Commercial vehicle manufacturers are expected to sell barely any more heavy commercial vehicles (HCVs) and medium commercial vehicles (MCVs) in 2026 than they do today. In short, sales are likely to stagnate over the next ten years.
Particularly in the highly developed commercial markets of the Triad, telematics and digitalization in transport will enable further increases in efficiency, meaning that fewer commercial vehicles will be required to transport the same or even a greater number of goods. Thus, the Triad markets are expected to shrink slightly at an annual rate of -0.9 percent from 2016 to 2021. After that, the decline is expected to accelerate to -1.4 percent per year until 2026.
Despite all the current difficulties in the Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC) countries, the truck markets in these regions are likely to offer many opportunities and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of +1.6 percent until 2026.
The most important trends that will ensure growth
- Telematics services
Telematics systems in trucks will become standard in the Triad markets.
- Urban logistics concepts
Increasing urbanization is leading to fundamental changes in supply concepts for major urban areas.
- Larger fleets and sharing concepts
Rising cost pressure is leading to increased consolidation within the logistics sector. The trend towards larger fleets with more than 100 vehicles will continue to increase until 2026.
- Alternative drive systems
Tighter exhaust gas regulations and access restrictions for diesel vehicles, especially in large cities, demand major investment in alternative drive systems, while simultaneously opening up new sales opportunities.