China Health Ecosystem 2030: A Scenarios Analysis

The report

China Health Ecosystem 2030: A Scenarios Analysis, a new study mapping the future of health in China by analyzing four scenarios that show how domestic and multinational pharma companies and other participants in the extended health ecosystem can assess its risks and opportunities to achieve sustainable development.

Key findings

The pandemic has highlighted the urgency of health care transformation to tackle issues such as under-developed diagnosis and primary care capabilities, strained funding, the widening gap between demand and supply, and disparities in the quality and accessibility of health care across China.

According to Deloitte's research and interviews with thought leaders and executives in China’s health care industry, the future of health in China will feature six mega trends: 

Chart 1 – Mega trends of future China health care

To examine how China's health care will evolve by 2030, we have developed a framework for scenario analysis based on critical uncertainties across social, technological, economic, environmental, and political aspects. We have mapped out four major scenarios for the future of China's health ecosystem based on supply and demand dimensions-- transformation of consumer needs and behaviors, extent and variety of market participation in health ecosystem.
With the degree of openness in policy regulation and the adoption speed of innovative technologies, any or a combination of these scenarios could happen by 2030 or even sooner.

The central theme underlying these scenarios is the importance of placing the design of a compelling, innovative health care experience and empowering consumers at the heart of health care strategies. New business models are essential to prepare for this more customer-centric future of health, as data, technology, and analytics have become core competencies.

Chart 2 – Four scenarios of China health ecosystem 2030

The four future scenarios show fundamentally different pathways toward realizing the Healthy China 2030 goals, all of which require systemic transformations of the health ecosystem. Every sector of this ecosystem requires responsive, agile leadership as they collectively shape this vital industry.