Six assumptions for measuring health disruption

By 2040, the customer will be at the center of a health care system that’s shifting from responding to illness and toward sustaining well-being. Cell and gene therapy drugs are gaining ground, and personalized—and affordable—medicine will be available. Scientific breakthroughs like stem cells, nanobots, and biome sensors will occur at an exponential pace.

We expect fundamental changes to the health care industry, driven by consumerism, data availability and use, and scientific innovation. Even though 2040 is 20 years away, these forces are already in motion. This article takes a step toward answering that question by looking at the evidence and identifying metrics that show that these forces already are in motion and by mapping their possible progression over time. This will help stakeholders begin to make strategic choices for the more immediate future.

Deloitte's vision for the future of health—and how we’ll measure its progress—is driven by six key assumptions over three distinct periods: initiation, proliferation, and transformation. Together with the measures, we highlight current and expected activity in the marketplace that illustrates how change might unfold.

• Data-sharing
  When data transparency becomes standard practice, consumer trust and willingness to share data will increase. Financial incentives will be used to ensure institutions and individuals participate in data-sharing.
• Interoperable data
  Data architecture will transform radically and enable deep, actionable analysis in real time. Aggregated data sets will provide a holistic view of the consumer and enable advanced analytics to generate novel insights in real time.
• Access
  Thanks to a radically transformed health system, traditional barriers to health care access, such as geography and lack of resources, will decline significantly. Socioeconomics will not dictate access as health improves and health care becomes more affordable.
• Empowered consumers
  Consumers are no longer passive participants in the health care system. They’re driving the pace of change by demanding transparency, convenience, and access. What’s more, they’re requiring the market to respond with a patient-centric approach that benefits all consumers.
• Behavior change
  Consumers are already beginning to use technology to manage their health and change their behaviors. This is why, by 2040, the focus will shift from treatment to well-being.

• Scientific breakthrough
  Cell and gene therapy drugs are gaining ground, and by 2040, personalized—and affordable—medicine will be available. Scientific breakthroughs like stem cells, nanobots, and biome sensors will occur at an exponential pace.

The year 2040 may seem far in the future, but initial evidence demonstrates how some organizations have already taken a lead, and how these measures are likely waypoints toward the future. However, several health care incumbents are still running their business as usual or are slowly following the lead taken by disrupters. These organizations may be challenged to survive and may have little choice but to transform their business models to converge on the waypoints for each period we discussed. Organizations seeking to transform should consider: building new businesses, forging partnerships, and appealing to the newly empowered health consumer.