Health in 2040: 10 Archetypes that Could Define the Future of Health | Deloitte US has been saved
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By Doug Beaudoin, principal, Deloitte Consulting LLP
Twenty years from now, we predict that the health care system we know today will look completely different. We are already beginning to see the early stages of this transformation. Health care consumers are starting to demand greater transparency, accessibility, and personalization…and that trend is likely to continue. Consumers will want automated, actionable health insights that come from smart artificial intelligence (AI) applied to interoperable data that is seamless and integrated across all platforms and applications. Many consumers will shop for modular and personalized health coverage and will receive care (mostly) where they are.
A wide range of companies—from inside and outside of the health care sector—are making strategic investments that could be the foundation for a future of health that is defined by radically interoperable data, open and secure platforms, and consumer-driven care. These organizations illustrate early innovations that can help personalize health care, enable consumers to make more informed decisions about their health, and leverage AI and other emerging technologies to harness and share data.
Consider some of the announcements that companies have made in just the past few months:
These examples point to a broader shift in life sciences and health care that is only beginning to form and signal a new future of health. I expect the pace of innovation in this sector is going to accelerate in 2019.
Jump ahead 20 years…How will innovation play out?
We don’t expect to have eliminated disease entirely by 2040, but by using actionable health insights driven by interoperable data and smart AI, we should be able to identify illness early and intervene much more quickly. This can pave the way for a future focused more on well-being rather than treatment.
Largely replacing the traditional industry segments we have now (health systems and clinicians, health plans, biopharmaceutical companies, and medical device manufacturers) we expect new roles, functions, and players will emerge. We expect the future of health will be made of three broad segments. Within these segments, we envision 10 sector-agnostic archetypes:
Data and platforms can generate the insights needed for personalized, always-on decision-making in the new health ecosystem. These archetypes can serve as the backbone for the health care ecosystem of tomorrow.
1. Data conveners: Data-gathering organizations will have an economic model built around1. aggregating and storing individual, population, institutional, and environmental data. These data can be used to drive the future of health.
2. Science and insights engines: Some organizations will likely have an economic model driven by their ability to derive insights and define the algorithms that power the future of health. These organizations will likely conduct research, develop analytical tools, and generate data insights that go far beyond human capabilities in care delivery.
3. Data and platform infrastructure builders: This new world of health will need infrastructure and platforms that can serve highly empowered and engaged individuals in real time (someone will need to lay the pipes).
Well-being and care delivery represent new virtual and physical communities that can provide consumer-centric delivery of products, care, wellness, and well-being.
4. Health product developers: The economic model of these organizations is driven by their ability to enable well-being and care delivery. While there will continue to be organizations that develop products, those products won’t likely be limited to pharmaceuticals and medical devices. They can also include software, applications, and wellness products.
5. Consumer-centric health (virtual home and community): Along with companies that develop health products, other organizations can provide the structure that supports virtual communities.
6. Specialty care operators: Two decades from now, we will likely still have disease, which means we will still need specialty care providers and highly specialized facilities where patients can receive care.
7. Localized health hubs: While there will be some specialty care, most health care will likely be delivered in localized health hubs. Localized health hubs can serve as centers for education, prevention, and treatment in a retail setting. Additionally, local hubs can connect consumers to virtual, home, and auxiliary wellness providers.
Care enablement includes the connectors and facilitators that can make the new health engine run.
8. Connectors and intermediaries: These are the logistics providers that will run the just-in-time supply chain, facilitate device and medication procurement operations, and get the product to the consumer.
9. Individualized financiers: Unlike the health insurers of today, these organizations will create the financial products that individuals can use to navigate their care. These organizations will likely offer tailored modular and catastrophic care-coverage packages. They can drive reductions in care costs by leveraging advanced risk models, consumer incentives, and market power.
10. Regulators: While we will still have regulators, we probably won’t view them as governmental traffic cops. They will set the standards for business transactions. The regulators of the future can influence policy in an effort to catalyze the future of health and drive innovation while promoting consumer and public safety.
Tomorrow’s consumers can expect the exponential changes I’ve outlined above—and they’ll vote with their feet and their wallets. Legacy stakeholders should consider whether to disrupt themselves or isolate and protect their offerings to retain some of their existing market shares. We anticipate that successful companies will identify and compete in one or a few of the new business archetypes above, taking into consideration their existing capabilities, core missions and beliefs, and expectations for the future.
For more on our vision for the future, visit our resource hub where you’ll find articles, videos, podcasts, and more.
* Apple, Apple Watch, CareKit, HealthKit, and ResearchKit are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. A view from the Center blog is an independent publication and has not been authorized, sponsored, or otherwise approved by Apple, Inc.
1. Amazon Comprehend Medical overview, https://aws.amazon.com/comprehend/medical/
2. Exponential Medicine 2018, November 5 session, http://www.gregoryschmidt.ca/writing/exponential-medicine-day-2-2018
3. Apple Watch Series 4, https://www.apple.com/apple-watch-series-4/health/
4. How Microsoft computer scientists and researchers are working to ‘solve’ cancer, https://news.microsoft.com/stories/computingcancer/
Doug Beaudoin is the Chief Information Officer for the Deloitte US Firms, leading all facets of technology. He is responsible for strategy, applications, infrastructure, support, and execution, and he is passionate about applying his client service and technology background to accelerate innovation in Deloitte’s portfolios and drive virtualization and digital transformation advantages in the marketplace. Doug is instrumental in the transformation of technology at Deloitte into a worldwide community of technology professionals working across member firms to serve Deloitte and drive synergies and efficiencies across our network. Beaudoin spends time working with major clients discussing technology strategy, trends, and leadership. He is a member of the Deloitte US Management Committee and serves as a Deloitte advisory partner to two large health system clients. With 30 years of experience in areas including the Life Sciences and Health Care industry, Beaudoin has advised many of the industry’s market leaders on their most strategic and transformative initiatives, driving shifts enabled by technology. Previously, Beaudoin served as Vice Chair and US Life Sciences and Health Care (LSHC) Industry Leader for Deloitte LLP, leading the overall strategic direction for the life sciences and health care practices, including audit, consulting, tax, and advisory services. He also served as Deloitte’s Health Care Global Leader and US LSHC Consulting Leader, as well as the Consulting Leader for the Deloitte Private client channel. He worked closely with Federal Health and served as a Deloitte advisory partner for several federal clients. Beaudoin’s deep IT experience includes large-scale digital implementations and technology transformation projects for both commercial and government organizations, incorporating the convergence of data and platforms. He led the development of Deloitte’s proprietary ConvergeHEALTH hybrid healthcare solutions business, directed at transforming the health care system toward health and wellness powered by radically interoperable data for personalized and seamless consumer experience. Beaudoin holds a Master of Health Administration from the University of Ottawa and a Bachelor of Arts degree from the University of Western Ontario. He serves on the Boston board of City Year.