AI in M&A: Where art and science meet has been saved
Perspectives
AI in M&A: Where art and science meet
The evolving role of Generative AI
There’s plenty of hard arithmetic in M&A, but it’s not all about numbers. There’s art alongside the science, and parts of the life cycle depend more on heuristic judgment than on quantifiable metrics. Learn why there is a role for Generative AI in M&A, but it may not always be a starring one.
Where AI in M&A needs human help
Organizations should embrace Generative AI as an ally in the M&A life cycle. The challenge in doing so is not to automate as much as possible, but to blend the precision of data-driven insights with the intuitive judgment it takes to navigate the intricacies of M&A and valuation.
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Strategic alignment
Identifying a target that fits with an acquiring company’s long-term goals is crucial. What are the target’s market position, competitive advantages, and potential synergies? Do acquisition goals envision market expansion, diversification, or new technologies or capabilities?
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Cultural fit
For integration success, the two companies’ cultures must align. Differences in management styles and expectations can breed conflict and dilute synergies.
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Due diligence
Financial analysis is critical—but so are potential risks and liabilities. It takes an eye for legal, operational, and strategic detail to perceive what hasn’t happened yet.
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Valuation method
Machines can add up the elements, but first people need to define the purpose of the valuation and judge which method captures the asset’s value on those terms given market conditions and industry trends.
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Valuation assumptions
Gauging future cash flows, growth rates, discount rates, and other variables requires a blend of analytical skills and informed judgment. Historical performance, market trends, and economic conditions all factor in.
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Perception and sentiment
Understanding how the market views an asset’s growth and risk potential requires a deep understanding of market dynamics and the ability to interpret qualitative information.
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Where AI fits into the arrangement
M&A and valuation have evolved from manual analysis to data-driven, tech-supported processes. “Traditional AI,”, like machine learning, already automates risk assessment and sentiment analysis. Generative AI in M&A is set to deepen these capabilities, but technology still has its place. You may look up a pancake recipe on a tablet, but you don’t use the tablet to flip the pancakes. The role of art is persistent—and invaluable. Here is a look at places in the life cycle where Generative AI can further enhance processes:
Market research and strategic planning form the basis of an M&A roadmap even before any specific targets come into focus. This is where an acquirer determines why to pursue a transaction, not where.
AI can help automate market research by complementing human awareness. In analyzing market trends and identifying potential growth areas, it help set clear business objectives and growth strategies.
AI can also enhance strategic planning. If people define various potential scenarios, AI can simulate them to help evaluate courses of action.
Example: A technology giant might use AI to analyze market data and identify a niche market with high growth potential. The result is a defined strategic objective to acquire a startup in that space.
With the opportunity defined, an acquirer moves to identify specific potential targets and use competitive and market intelligence to evaluate them.
AI can bring speed and accuracy to target identification by scanning vast amounts of data and following it to entities that meet defined criteria. This ability far exceeds what humans can do in the same amount of time, but it complements the qualitative assessments that count alongside the quantitative ones.
In a similar way, AI can process large volumes of competitive and market information to vet potential targets for their competitive impact.
Example: AI might sift and process a high volume of corporate or patent data to pinpoint a two-year-old startup with an innovative technology that complements a larger, more mature acquirer’s product line.
With a target in sight, it’s time to dive deep into everything the acquirer can responsibly learn, and AI couples well with human insight in turning over all the right stones.
AI can help to automate the due diligence process by reviewing and reporting on financial, legal, and operational documents—not only summarizing their contents and tallying quantitative elements from within them, but also highlighting potential risks and opportunities that humans may then evaluate.
AI can further contribute to target risk assessment by analyzing historical data, extracting patterns and anomalies, and flagging areas of concern.
Example: That two-year-old startup doesn’t have a century’s worth of financial statements, but what’s there is detailed and merits close analysis. AI reviews the documentation and identifies a handful of potential legal liabilities for the human team to investigate.
Now the sides are joined in talks, and it’s time to see if they will end up joined for real. Coming to a mutually satisfactory arrangement is a human process informed by massive data volumes.
In crafting the structure of a potential deal, AI can simulate potential options and their likely outcomes to illustrate which set of terms may work for both parties.
Valuation is an indispensable element of this step, and AI can help automate the valuation process not only by processing data that’s already ready for analysis, but also by extracting information from unstructured documents and feeding them into the analysis.
Example: Faced with a large volume of legal contracts and financial documents, a human team scans them to find the occasional insight. But AI extracts information from them to turn unstructured input into structured data, ready for analysis that will help shape the valuation and deal.
Once the parties agree to a deal, there’s plenty of work ahead to turn two entities into one. Integration planning and project management require a dual focus on the big picture and the smallest details.
AI can assist integration planning by spotting potential value-creating synergies—and potential risks—where they might be difficult for humans to uncover given the time and scope of their work.
Managing the many individual projects that make up an integration effort is another area where AI can complement people by keeping tasks on-time and on-budget.
Example: AI identifies key areas where the target startup’s technology can be integrated into the acquirer’s product line in ways that not only combine value but create it to form measurable synergies.
Just as M&A doesn’t begin with the “A,” it doesn’t end with the “M,” either. Once the formerly separate companies have merged, integrated, and settled into combined operations, it’s still vital to keep watch on how well expectations are panning out and performance is living up to them.
AI can enhance performance monitoring by continuously reviewing operational data in ways that outperform human capability, flagging areas in which reality is falling short or improvement appears possible.
Real-time data analytics can help identify these opportunities to do better, define them, and suggest steps to carry them out.
Example: With the former startup now fully integrated into the new parent, AI continues to monitor key performance indicators (KPIs) such as revenue growth and client retention. Where adjustments to improve performance appear likely, it calls them out.
Key controls and procedures for AI in M&A
Keeping AI within guardrails is a business responsibility. Some of the key controls and procedures we should enable to oversee this process include:
Governance and oversight: A dedicated group should ensure AI operates within ethical and regulatory boundaries, verifying outcomes, maintaining documentation, and setting stakeholder-focused guidelines.
Human oversight: Humans should validate AI results, with all conclusions traceable to original data sources. Regular, comprehensive review is critical.
Data integrity: The data used by Generative AI must be kept accurate and up to date.
Training: Staff should receive training in using AI tools effectively, especially Generative AI, and understand the role of human oversight.
A collaboration that’s greater than the sum of its parts
Technology, process, and people are the cornerstones of effective M&A. Machines enhance our capabilities, but they never make human’s expendable; – rather, they complement us, amplifying our M&A efficiency and value. The seamless integration of technology, processes, and human perception and experience has the potential to unlock new frontiers of value and efficiency in M&A. Generative AI in M&A is ready to significantly enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of M&A processes, from formulating strategies to monitoring post-merger
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