Forecasting the performance of the US banking industry has been saved
Perspectives
Forecasting the performance of the US banking industry
An improving outlook
How can US commercial banks better navigate lingering questions and shifting expectations about the country’s economic recovery amid the pandemic? Explore our predictions to learn more about the US banking industry’s projected performance—from loan losses to return on equity—over the next few years.
Explore content
- Significant challenges expected over the next several years
- Projections for the US commercial banking industry performance
- Learn more about banking industry performance
- Get in touch
- Join the conversation
Significant challenges expected over the next several years
The outlook for banks is looking up, but lingering questions about the economic recovery and expectations of a low-rate environment present significant challenges over the next several years.
Deloitte forecasts that US commercial banks could experience up to $254 billion of net loan losses between 2020 and 2022. Our latest estimate is also lower than our previous forecasts, mainly due to improving economic prospects. This is also significantly less than the cumulative net loan losses during the Great Financial Crisis (GFC). Commercial and consumer loans should take the biggest hit. On the revenue side, loan growth should remain muted, and the low-rate environment will likely continue to suppress net interest income. The banking industry is expected to continue implementing cost reduction strategies and refining its business models to drive growth.
Navigate the future of US banking industry performance by exploring our updates below.
Learn more about banking industry performance

In our 2021 banking and capital markets outlook, 200 industry leaders weighed in on their companies’ COVID-19 recovery efforts. How can the insights that emerged serve as a catalyst for accelerated business transformation? Keep reading.
Strengthen resilience, accelerate transformation
The future showed up early. Across the commercial real estate, banking and capital markets, insurance, and investment management sectors, our 2021 outlooks reveal the inextricable link between recovering from COVID-19’s impact and transforming operations to power success and thrive in the years ahead. Learn the steps organizations can take now to prepare for what’s next.
See the collection
The beginning of July 2020 gave us the first glimpse of the potential damage lying ahead: The US banking industry provisioned a total of $52.7 billion for loan losses in the first quarter alone, with the second quarter probably looking even worse. By the end of March, the United States hit record levels of unemployment, the highest since the Great Depression. The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES Act) was still being developed.
Since then, the reopening of some sectors of the economy in the late second quarter has—at least temporarily—decelerated the plunge. But uncertainty on a number of fronts will cloud expectations for the foreseeable future.
Read the forecast
Regulators continue to refine existing regulations implemented in the wake of the global financial crisis and are now focusing their attention on existing policy areas such as climate risk, digital currencies, technology, and innovation. Meanwhile, they are reviewing their own supervisory processes. Gain insight into banking regulations that industry leaders and decision-makers should be tracking and addressing in 2021.
Read the reportRecommendations
2025 banking regulatory outlook: Gearing up for change
What banking changes will the new administration introduce?
Data analytics in investment banking
Four shifts defining data in banking and capital markets