Measuring the return from pharmaceutical innovation 2021
Nurturing growthSince 2010, we have been tracking the returns on R&D investment that the largest biopharma companies might expect to achieve from their late-stage pipelines. This year’s analysis shows a large improvement in the average internal rate of return (IRR) on pharmaceutical innovation for our combined cohort. This suggests that the slight uptick seen last year has been nurtured to deliver more tangible growth.
Our latest report looks at the current state of R&D returns for 15 leading biopharma companies, the impact of the pandemic on R&D pipelines during 2021, and how this has expedited the adoption of digital solutions and impacted the IRR. This has left the industry well positioned to build on the momentum and the lessons of what worked well to optimize processes and fundamentally change the drug research and development paradigm.
Key findings
Projected returns from innovation continue the upward trend
Last year, we saw the “seeds of change” taking root following six years of decline, albeit it
was only a slight uptick (from 1.5 to 2.7). This trend continues, with the combined cohort
experiencing a large uptick from 2020 to 2021 (from 2.7 to 7.0). Figure 1 shows the overall trend
line for the IRR between 2013 and 2021 for the combined cohort indicating that the average IRR has
returned to a value similar to that last seen in 2014. If emergency-approved COVID-19–related assets
are excluded, the projected IRR is 3.2%, showing the industry has improved its core productivity.
Cost to bring an asset to market has declined over the past three years, as peak sales forecasts increase
The combined cohort’s average cost to develop an asset was $2,006 million, a decrease of $370 million from 2020 (but nevertheless an increase of $710 million from 2013). This decrease in 2021 compared to 2020 is due mainly to the overall increase in the number of assets in the late-stage pipeline.
In 2021, the average forecast peak sales per pipeline asset for the combined cohort increased from $422 million in 2020 to $521 million in 2021. The variation in the range of forecast peak sales across companies has also increased, which is driven by the sales forecasts for COVID-19 vaccines.
The sources of innovation are increasingly external
Continuing the trend that we’ve seen for the past few years, the sources of innovation for the
late-stage pipeline of our combined cohort is increasingly external. Notably this year has seen an
increase in co-developed assets, from 32% in 2020 to 46% in 2021, meaning almost half of the assets
in the late-stage pipeline are now being developed through collaborations and scientific
partnerships.
Cycle time for the combined cohort has improved slightly but remains above pre-pandemic levels
Over the past few years, rising cycle times have been a continued challenge to biopharma R&D productivity, but our 2021 analysis shows an improvement to 6.9 years. During our analysis period, disruptions to routine drug development activity due to COVID-19 steadily declined. However, despite the dip, the overall cycle time for the combined cohort continues to remain above 2019 levels, reinforcing the need to optimize processes or fundamentally change the drug development paradigm.
Sustaining the momentum of change from COVID-19
Navigating the impact of the pandemic has been an all-encompassing, once-in-a-generation challenge for the biopharma industry. While the industry rose to the occasion by making innovative changes to the R&D process, now is the time to sustain the momentum of change to prepare for the future. Success will depend on the industry’s ability to learn the lessons from the use of transformative trial design and rollout, cross-industry collaborations, and the adoption of digital solutions, to maintain and institutionalize new ways of working for the future.
We have identified a number of overarching areas that companies should focus on to nurture the growth
identified by our 2021 analysis and create a more productive future for R&D.
Nurturing growth
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PODCAST: Nurturing growth: Measuring the return of pharmaceutical innovation
Our 15th episode of the Life Sciences Connect Series will explore our latest insights on pharma R&D productivity.
WEBCAST: Pharma R&D productivity
Join our online event on February 23, 2022, where we’ll discuss key findings from the 2021 pharmaceutical innovation report with a panel of experts.
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Since 2010, Deloitte has been tracking the returns on R&D investment of the largest biopharma companies. Let us know if you have any questions or would be interested in receiving a more detailed analysis of your company's 2021 performance (available for select cohort companies).
Key contacts
Neil Lesser
Principal
Sonal Shah
Senior Manager
